气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Confirmation for and Predictability of Distinct U.S. Impacts of El Niño Flavors

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0802.1
	Confirmation for and Predictability of Distinct U.S. Impacts of El Niño Flavors
	Zhang T.; Hoerling M.P.; Hoell A.; Perlwitz J.; Eischeid J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	5971
结束页码	5991
卷号	33 期号:14
英文摘要	Whether distinct wintertime U.S. climate conditions exist for central-Pacific (CP) versus eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events is explored using atmospheric and coupled ocean-Atmospheric models. Results using the former agree with most prior studies indicating different U.S.Temperature and precipitation patterns associated with El Niño flavors. Causes are traced to equatorial rainfall sensitivity to both magnitudes and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) distinguishing CP and EP cases. Warmer east equatorial Pacific Ocean SSTs during EP than CP events, specifically for strong EP cases, are responsible for greater east equatorial Pacific rainfall, which displaces tropospheric circulation anomalies eastward over the Pacific-North American region. Weak-Amplitude EP cases and all CP events since 1980 fail to excite east equatorial Pacific rainfall, thus not initiating the dynamical chain of effects characterizing strong EP cases. Over the contiguous United States, the difference in tropospheric circulations between strong EP and CP events describes a cyclonic pattern that renders the former colder and wetter. Regional signals include notably colder western and warmer eastern U.S. surface temperatures during EP versus CP events, and higher southwestern and southeastern U.S. precipitation during EP events. We demonstrate the important result-new to studies of observed El Niño flavor impacts-That coupled models largely reproduce the sensitivities of atmospheric models. Confirmed hereby is the realism of prior estimates of El Niño flavor impacts that relied on atmospheric models alone. We further examine predictability of El Niño flavors using coupled forecasts, demonstrating that SST distinctions between CP and EP events and their diverse U.S. wintertime impacts are predictable at least a season in advance. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Rain; Surface properties; Surface waters; Troposphere; Atmospheric model; Climate condition; Equatorial Pacific; Equatorial Pacific Ocean; Precipitation patterns; Sea surface temperatures; Surface temperatures; Tropospheric circulation; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric modeling; climate prediction; El Nino; rainfall; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; troposphere; weather forecasting; winter; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (East); United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171221
作者单位	Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang T.,Hoerling M.P.,Hoell A.,et al. Confirmation for and Predictability of Distinct U.S. Impacts of El Niño Flavors[J],2020,33(14).
APA	Zhang T.,Hoerling M.P.,Hoell A.,Perlwitz J.,&Eischeid J..(2020).Confirmation for and Predictability of Distinct U.S. Impacts of El Niño Flavors.Journal of Climate,33(14).
MLA	Zhang T.,et al."Confirmation for and Predictability of Distinct U.S. Impacts of El Niño Flavors".Journal of Climate 33.14(2020).