气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An internal atmospheric process determining summertime Arctic sea ice melting in the next three decades: Lessons learned from five large ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0803.1
	An internal atmospheric process determining summertime Arctic sea ice melting in the next three decades: Lessons learned from five large ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations
	Topál D.; Ding Q.; Mitchell J.; Baxter I.; Herein M.; Haszpra T.; Luo R.; Li Q.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7431
结束页码	7454
卷号	33 期号:17
英文摘要	Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropic atmospheric process over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean in summer (June–August), featuring either a year-to-year change or a low-frequency trend toward geopotential height rise, has been identified as an essential contributor to September sea ice loss, in both observations and the CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) of simulations. This local melting is further found to be sensitive to remote sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Here, we utilize five available large ‘‘initial condition’’ Earth system model ensembles and 31 CMIP5 models’ preindustrial control simulations to show that the same atmospheric process, resembling the observed one and the one found in the CESM-LE, also dominates internal sea ice variability in summer on interannual to interdecadal time scales in preindustrial, historical, and future scenarios, regardless of the modeling environment. However, all models exhibit limitations in replicating the magnitude of the observed local atmosphere–sea ice coupling and its sensitivity to remote tropical SST variability in the past four decades. These biases call for caution in the interpretation of existing models’ simulations and fresh thinking about models’ credibility in simulating interactions of sea ice variability with the Arctic and global climate systems. Further efforts toward identifying the causes of these model limitations may provide implications for alleviating the biases and improving interannual- and decadal-time-scale sea ice prediction and future sea ice projection. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; Ice control; Sea ice; Surface waters; Tropics; Atmospheric process; Atmospheric variability; Geo-potential heights; Global climate system; Initial conditions; Modeling environments; Sea surface temperature (SST); Tropical Pacific ocean; Oceanography; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; CMIP; decadal variation; melting; sea ice; sea surface temperature; summer; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Greenland; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171164
作者单位	Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Budapest, Hungary; Department of Geography, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eotv € os € Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; MTA–ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Eotv € os € Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Topál D.,Ding Q.,Mitchell J.,et al. An internal atmospheric process determining summertime Arctic sea ice melting in the next three decades: Lessons learned from five large ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations[J],2020,33(17).
APA	Topál D..,Ding Q..,Mitchell J..,Baxter I..,Herein M..,...&Li Q..(2020).An internal atmospheric process determining summertime Arctic sea ice melting in the next three decades: Lessons learned from five large ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations.Journal of Climate,33(17).
MLA	Topál D.,et al."An internal atmospheric process determining summertime Arctic sea ice melting in the next three decades: Lessons learned from five large ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations".Journal of Climate 33.17(2020).