气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Heavy daily precipitation events in the CMIP6 worst-case scenario: Projected twenty-first-century changes

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0940.1
	Heavy daily precipitation events in the CMIP6 worst-case scenario: Projected twenty-first-century changes
	Scoccimarro E.; Gualdi S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7631
结束页码	7642
卷号	33 期号:17
英文摘要	Heavy precipitation is often the trigger for flooding and landslides, leading to significant societal and economic impacts, ranging from fatalities to damage to infrastructure to loss of crops and livestock. Therefore, it is critical that we have a better understanding of how it may be changing in the future. Based on model projections from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), future daily precipitation is likely to increase in intensity. The main goal of this study is to examine possible improvements in the representation of intense and extreme precipitation by a new set of climate models contributing to phase 6 of CMIP effort (CMIP6) and to quantify its projected changes under the highest emissions scenario by the end of the current century [i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) SSP5-8.5]. Daily precipitation data from six CMIP6 models were analyzed that have a nominal horizontal grid spacing around 100 km and provide data for the highest emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. Two of the six CMIP6 models overestimate the extreme precipitation (defined as the 99th percentile of the precipitation distribution) in the tropics, leading to large biases in the right tail of the daily precipitation over the tropics. Consistent with the CMIP5 results, the CMIP6 models projected increased heavy daily precipitation and increased width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution associated with increased water vapor content. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Economic and social effects; Precipitation (meteorology); Tropics; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Daily precipitations; Extreme precipitation; Heavy precipitation; Horizontal grid spacing; Precipitation distribution; Water vapor contents; Worst case scenario; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; extreme event; flooding; future prospect; landslide; precipitation intensity; socioeconomic conditions; trigger mechanism; twenty first century; water vapor; weather forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171134
作者单位	Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scoccimarro E.,Gualdi S.. Heavy daily precipitation events in the CMIP6 worst-case scenario: Projected twenty-first-century changes[J],2020,33(17).
APA	Scoccimarro E.,&Gualdi S..(2020).Heavy daily precipitation events in the CMIP6 worst-case scenario: Projected twenty-first-century changes.Journal of Climate,33(17).
MLA	Scoccimarro E.,et al."Heavy daily precipitation events in the CMIP6 worst-case scenario: Projected twenty-first-century changes".Journal of Climate 33.17(2020).