气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0291.1
	Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability
	Shin S.-I.; Sardeshmukh P.D.; Newman M.; Penland C.; Alexander M.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	171
结束页码	193
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	Low-order linear inverse models (LIMs) have been shown to be competitive with comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean models at reproducing many aspects of tropical oceanic variability and predictability. This paper presents an extended cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) that includes the annual cycles of the background state and stochastic forcing of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. Compared to a traditional stationary LIM that ignores such annual cycles, the CS-LIM is better at representing the seasonal modulation of ENSO-related SST anomalies and their phase locking to the annual cycle. Its deterministic as well as probabilistic hindcast skill is comparable to the skill of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) of comprehensive global coupled models. The explicit inclusion of annual-cycle effects in the CS-LIM improves the forecast skill of both SST and SSH anomalies through SST-SSH coupling. The impact on the SSH skill is particularly marked at longer forecast lead times over the western Pacific and in the vicinity of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), consistent with westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that reflect off the western boundaries as eastward propagating Kelvin waves and influence El Niño development in the region. The higher CS-LIM skill is thus associated with the improved representation of both ENSO phase-locking and Pacific NECC variations. These improvements result from explicitly accounting for not only the annual cycle of the background state, but also that of the stochastic forcing. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Locks (fasteners); Mechanical waves; Ocean currents; Stochastic systems; Surface waters; Tropics; Global coupled model; Linear inverse models; Multi-model ensemble; North equatorial countercurrent; Oceanic variabilities; Sea surface height; Sea surface temperature (SST); Stochastic forcing; Stochastic models; air-sea interaction; annual cycle; climate change; countercurrent; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170969
作者单位	CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shin S.-I.,Sardeshmukh P.D.,Newman M.,et al. Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability[J],2021,34(1).
APA	Shin S.-I.,Sardeshmukh P.D.,Newman M.,Penland C.,&Alexander M.A..(2021).Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability.Journal of Climate,34(1).
MLA	Shin S.-I.,et al."Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability".Journal of Climate 34.1(2021).