气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1;200+ Years of Upper Colorado River Flow

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DOI	10.1029/2019GL086689
	Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1;200+ Years of Upper Colorado River Flow
	Robeson S.M.; Maxwell J.T.; Ficklin D.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:1
英文摘要	Bias correction, while widely used with climate-model output, is not typically applied to paleoclimatic reconstructions. While many reconstruction models have low average error, they still may contain bias, especially in the tails of distributions. Bias correction, used cautiously, can be a valuable procedure that alters interpretations of past events. Analyzing the iconic tree-ring reconstruction of Upper Colorado River flow, we find that its probability distribution is markedly different from that of observed flow. Using quantile mapping to bias correct the reconstruction, we analyze the full reconstructed record and two events in particular: the 1100s megadrought and the early 1600s pluvial. Overall, bias correction made the 1100s megadrought, the largest in the 1,200+year record, even more extreme. After bias correction, the early 1600s pluvial marginally exceeds the early twentieth century pluvial in magnitude but not in duration. Overall, bias correction should be considered whenever paleoclimatic reconstructions are compared directly to observations. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Probability distributions; Repair; Stream flow; Bias correction; Colorado River; Low average error; Paleoclimatic reconstruction; Tree-ring reconstruction; Twentieth century; Climate models; climate modeling; correction; paleoclimate; reconstruction; twentieth century; Colorado River [North America]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170885
作者单位	Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robeson S.M.,Maxwell J.T.,Ficklin D.L.. Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1;200+ Years of Upper Colorado River Flow[J],2020,47(1).
APA	Robeson S.M.,Maxwell J.T.,&Ficklin D.L..(2020).Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1;200+ Years of Upper Colorado River Flow.Geophysical Research Letters,47(1).
MLA	Robeson S.M.,et al."Bias Correction of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions: A New Look at 1;200+ Years of Upper Colorado River Flow".Geophysical Research Letters 47.1(2020).