气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085782
	Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models
	Zelinka M.D.; Myers T.A.; McCoy D.T.; Po-Chedley S.; Caldwell P.M.; Ceppi P.; Klein S.A.; Taylor K.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:1
英文摘要	Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO CO2 doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO2 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Carbon dioxide; Surface properties; Climate sensitivity; Cloud feedbacks; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Global climate model; Global surface temperature; Physical process; Sensitivity model; Surface temperatures; Climate models; albedo; carbon dioxide; climate modeling; cloud cover; CMIP; experimental study; extratropical environment
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170882
作者单位	Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zelinka M.D.,Myers T.A.,McCoy D.T.,et al. Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models[J],2020,47(1).
APA	Zelinka M.D..,Myers T.A..,McCoy D.T..,Po-Chedley S..,Caldwell P.M..,...&Taylor K.E..(2020).Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models.Geophysical Research Letters,47(1).
MLA	Zelinka M.D.,et al."Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models".Geophysical Research Letters 47.1(2020).