气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhancing ENSO Prediction Skill by Combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse Models (MA-LIM)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085914
	Enhancing ENSO Prediction Skill by Combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse Models (MA-LIM)
	Shin J.; Park S.; Shin S.-I.; Newman M.; Alexander M.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:1
英文摘要	To enhance El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast skill, we devise a model analog (MA)-linear inverse model (LIM) by nudging sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomalies forecasted by the LIM into the MA. The performances of the LIM, MA, and MA-LIM are compared to general circulation model simulations and observations. At short (long) lead month τ, the LIM (MA) predicts the Niño 3.4 SST anomalies better than the MA (LIM). On the other hand, the MA-LIM shows the best performance at all τ. At τ=6, the MA performs better than the LIM in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans but worse in other regions. The MA-LIM substantially remedies the undesirable aspects of the MA. The success of the MA-LIM appears to come from the use of more accurate initial conditions than the MA and an ad hoc implementation of seasonal cycle and nonlinearities into the LIM through nudging to the MA. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Surface waters; Ad hoc implementation; Eastern equatorial Pacific; ENSO; General circulation model simulations; Linear inverse models; MA-LIM; Sea surface temperature (SST); Sea-surface height anomalies; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; general circulation model; prediction; sea surface height; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170864
作者单位	School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shin J.,Park S.,Shin S.-I.,et al. Enhancing ENSO Prediction Skill by Combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse Models (MA-LIM)[J],2020,47(1).
APA	Shin J.,Park S.,Shin S.-I.,Newman M.,&Alexander M.A..(2020).Enhancing ENSO Prediction Skill by Combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse Models (MA-LIM).Geophysical Research Letters,47(1).
MLA	Shin J.,et al."Enhancing ENSO Prediction Skill by Combining Model-Analog and Linear Inverse Models (MA-LIM)".Geophysical Research Letters 47.1(2020).