气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL085378
	Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections
	Hausfather Z.; Drake H.F.; Abbott T.; Schmidt G.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:1
英文摘要	Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyze the performance of climate models published between 1970 and 2007 in projecting future global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes. Models are compared to observations based on both the change in GMST over time and the change in GMST over the change in external forcing. The latter approach accounts for mismatches in model forcings, a potential source of error in model projections independent of the accuracy of model physics. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally estimated forcings were taken into account. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; External forcing; Forcings; Future models; Global mean surface temperature; Model physics; Model skill; Potential sources; Climate models; climate forcing; climate modeling; error analysis; future prospect; performance assessment; surface temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170839
作者单位	Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Broadway, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hausfather Z.,Drake H.F.,Abbott T.,et al. Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections[J],2020,47(1).
APA	Hausfather Z.,Drake H.F.,Abbott T.,&Schmidt G.A..(2020).Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(1).
MLA	Hausfather Z.,et al."Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.1(2020).