气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086361
	Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill
	Sospedra-Alfonso R.; Boer G.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:4
英文摘要	An alternative approach to evaluating the correlation skill of near-term climate predictions is proposed. The approach separately quantifies the skill of the initialized and uninitialized components of the forecast and their contributions to overall correlation skill. The initialized component consists of the predictable part of the internally generated natural variability and that part of the externally forced component affected by initialization. The methodology is applied to results from the latest Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis' decadal prediction system. The initialized component of annual mean temperature forecasts exhibits regional skill over ocean and land. The contribution to overall skill is modest at longer ranges and for multiyear temperature averages, partly because of the strong temperature response to external forcing. Larger ensembles increase the percentage of global area with predictable variance due to initialization and the contribution to overall skill from the initialized component of the forecast. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climatology; Climate prediction; Ensemble prediction; Hindcasts; impact of initialization on prediction skill; Skill decomposition; Forecasting; assessment method; climate prediction; hindcasting; methodology; prediction; weather forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170681
作者单位	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sospedra-Alfonso R.,Boer G.J.. Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill[J],2020,47(4).
APA	Sospedra-Alfonso R.,&Boer G.J..(2020).Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill.Geophysical Research Letters,47(4).
MLA	Sospedra-Alfonso R.,et al."Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill".Geophysical Research Letters 47.4(2020).