气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086480
	Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States
	Blum A.G.; Ferraro P.J.; Archfield S.A.; Ryberg K.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:5
英文摘要	Despite consensus that impervious surfaces increase flooding, the magnitude of the increase remains uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the challenge of isolating the effect of changes in impervious cover separate from other factors that also affect flooding. To control for these factors, prior study designs rely on either temporal or spatial variation in impervious cover. We leverage both temporal and spatial variation in a panel data regression design to isolate the effect of impervious cover on floods. With 39 years of data from 280 U.S. streamgages, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in impervious basin cover causes a 3.3% increase in annual flood magnitude (95%CI: 1.9%, 4.7%) on average. Using 2,109 streamgages, some of which have upstream regulation and/or overlapping basins, we estimate a larger effect: 4.6% (CI: 3.5%, 5.6%). The approach introduced here can be extended to estimate the causal effects of other drivers of hydrologic change. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Earth sciences; Geophysics; causal; Impervious surface; inference; panel regression; Spatial variations; Temporal and spatial variation; Upstream regulation; urbanization; Floods; design method; flood frequency; magnitude; panel data; spatial variation; temporal analysis; uncertainty analysis; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170630
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Environmental Health and Engineering and the Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States; Dakota Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Bismarck, ND, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blum A.G.,Ferraro P.J.,Archfield S.A.,et al. Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States[J],2020,47(5).
APA	Blum A.G.,Ferraro P.J.,Archfield S.A.,&Ryberg K.R..(2020).Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States.Geophysical Research Letters,47(5).
MLA	Blum A.G.,et al."Causal Effect of Impervious Cover on Annual Flood Magnitude for the United States".Geophysical Research Letters 47.5(2020).