气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087408
	Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
	Becker E.; Kirtman B.; Pegion K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:9
英文摘要	The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) has become integral scientific infrastructure in subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction, advancing applied prediction and scientific understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of short-term climate. The NMME was designed to evolve as old models were retired and new models joined the ensemble. This study examines the assumption that prediction skill will increase as the system evolves, focusing on 2 m temperature, precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature prediction. The common period of 1982–2010 is studied for four configurations of the NMME, approximately representing the operational model suites of 2011, 2012, 2014–2018, and 2019–present. Substantial improvement in temperature prediction over both land and ocean is observed, with little change in global precipitation prediction. Sea surface temperature prediction at longer leads has improved over much of the globe, with the notable exception of the central-eastern tropical Pacific, where prediction skill has declined. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Forecasting; Oceanography; Precipitation (meteorology); Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Eastern tropical pacific; Global precipitation; Multi-model ensemble; Precipitation rates; Scientific infrastructure; Sea surface temperature (SST); Seasonal climate prediction; Temperature prediction; Climate models; climate modeling; climate prediction; land surface; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; surface temperature; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170402
作者单位	University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Becker E.,Kirtman B.,Pegion K.. Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble[J],2020,47(9).
APA	Becker E.,Kirtman B.,&Pegion K..(2020).Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.Geophysical Research Letters,47(9).
MLA	Becker E.,et al."Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble".Geophysical Research Letters 47.9(2020).