气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Antarctic Surface Mass Balance: Natural Variability; Noise; and Detecting New Trends

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087493
	Antarctic Surface Mass Balance: Natural Variability; Noise; and Detecting New Trends
	King M.A.; Watson C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:12
英文摘要	The emergence of new, statistically robust trends in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) requires an understanding of the underlying SMB variability (noise). We show that simple white or AR[1] noise models do not adequately represent the variability of SMB in both the RACMO2.3p2 SMB model output (1979–2017) and composite ice core records (1800–2010), underestimating low-frequency variability. By testing a range of noise models, we find that a Generalized Gauss Markov (GGM) model better approximates the noise around a linear trend. The general preference for GGM noise applies over spatial scales from the total ice sheet down to individual drainage basins. Over the longest timescales considered, trend uncertainties are 1.3–2.3 times larger using a GGM model compared to using an AR1 model at the ice sheet scale. Overall, our results suggest that larger trends or longer periods are required before new SMB trends can be robustly separated from background noise. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Catchments; Glaciers; Background noise; Ice core records; Linear trends; Low frequency variability; Model outputs; Natural variability; Spatial scale; Surface mass balance; Ice; drainage basin; frequency analysis; glacier mass balance; ice core; ice sheet; signal-to-noise ratio; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170243
作者单位	Surveying and Spatial Sciences, School of Technology, Environments and Design, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	King M.A.,Watson C.S.. Antarctic Surface Mass Balance: Natural Variability; Noise; and Detecting New Trends[J],2020,47(12).
APA	King M.A.,&Watson C.S..(2020).Antarctic Surface Mass Balance: Natural Variability; Noise; and Detecting New Trends.Geophysical Research Letters,47(12).
MLA	King M.A.,et al."Antarctic Surface Mass Balance: Natural Variability; Noise; and Detecting New Trends".Geophysical Research Letters 47.12(2020).