气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087624
	Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions
	Chan D.; Cobb A.; Zeppetello L.R.V.; Battisti D.S.; Huybers P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:13
英文摘要	Climate change presents risks both in terms of warming and increased variability that are heightened when compounded. It is thus notable that the simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) showing greater Northern midlatitude continental warming also show a greater increase in monthly average temperature variance, particularly in Europe. European variability increases with warming at a rate of 0.40°C2/°C (95% C.I. [0.28, 0.50]), with local warming rates explaining 71% of the intermodel difference in variability changes. Coupling between warming and variance increases the probability of high temperatures compared to a scenario where variance is stable. If warming were to reach 6°C, the risk of monthly average temperature exceeding a 30°C threshold is 4 times greater in the increased-variance scenario. Despite the simple scaling across models suggesting some common origin, changes in model temperature and variance potentially involve a range of mechanisms whose contributions remain unclear. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; High temperature; Midlatitudes; Model temperatures; Temperature variability; Temperature variance; Risk perception; CMIP; global warming; midlatitude environment; simulation; summer; temperature gradient; Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170178
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chan D.,Cobb A.,Zeppetello L.R.V.,et al. Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions[J],2020,47(13).
APA	Chan D.,Cobb A.,Zeppetello L.R.V.,Battisti D.S.,&Huybers P..(2020).Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions.Geophysical Research Letters,47(13).
MLA	Chan D.,et al."Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions".Geophysical Research Letters 47.13(2020).