气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088151
	Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections
	Fosser G.; Kendon E.J.; Stephenson D.; Tucker S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:13
英文摘要	The future increase in extreme precipitation is likely to have a severe impact on society due to flooding. Previous research has shown the improved representation of precipitation in convection-permitting models (CPMs), but until now it has not been possible to quantify uncertainties in future changes at convective (<5 km) scales. Here we analyze the first-ever ensemble of convection-permitting climate projections run within the UK Climate Projections project. We find that the CPM ensemble shows a significantly stronger intensification of summer hourly precipitation compared to the driving 12 km ensemble, with increases above the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and natural variability dominating the ensemble spread for extremes. Results suggest that the climate change signal across different CPMs may converge thanks to the more realistic representation of the local storm dynamics. We conclude that CPMs offer the promise of reducing uncertainties for extreme summer precipitation projections due to the better and explicit representation of convection. © 2020 Crown copyright.
英文关键词	Precipitation (meteorology); Clausius Clapeyron relation; Climate projection; Explicit representation; Extreme precipitation; Extreme rainfall; Natural variability; Storm dynamics; Summer precipitation; Climate change; atmospheric convection; atmospheric modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; flooding; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; rainfall; summer
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170170
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Now at Scuola Superiore Studi Pavia IUSS, Pavia, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fosser G.,Kendon E.J.,Stephenson D.,et al. Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections[J],2020,47(13).
APA	Fosser G.,Kendon E.J.,Stephenson D.,&Tucker S..(2020).Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(13).
MLA	Fosser G.,et al."Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.13(2020).