气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL087354
	El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier
	Wang B.; Luo X.; Sun W.; Yang Y.-M.; Liu J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:13
英文摘要	El Niño exerts widespread hydroclimate impacts during boreal summer. However, the current prediction of El Niño across boreal spring has the most severe forecast errors, partially due to the lack of understanding diversified El Niño onset and decay. Here we show, through nonlinear k-means cluster analysis of evolutions of 40 El Niño events since 1870, El Niño exhibits complex and diverse flavors in its onset and decay across boreal spring predictability barrier. We detected three types of El Niño onset and three types of decay. Each type exhibits distinct coupled dynamics, precursors, and hydroclimate impacts. The results guide the prediction of different types of El Niño transition amid spring predictability barrier and global land precipitation during early and late boreal summer. The new classification offers a metric to evaluate performances of climate models and to project future change of El Niño properties and its predictability. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Climate change; Cluster analysis; Forecasting; K-means clustering; Boreal Spring; Coupled dynamics; Forecast errors; Climate models; Boreal; cluster analysis; El Nino; error analysis; global climate; precipitation (climatology); prediction; summer
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170142
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province; School of GeographyScience, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang B.,Luo X.,Sun W.,et al. El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier[J],2020,47(13).
APA	Wang B.,Luo X.,Sun W.,Yang Y.-M.,&Liu J..(2020).El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier.Geophysical Research Letters,47(13).
MLA	Wang B.,et al."El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier".Geophysical Research Letters 47.13(2020).