气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087200
	Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate
	Norris J.; Chen G.; Li C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:14
英文摘要	Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially, and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ∼7% K−1 Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global-climate-model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996–2005) to late-21st-century (2071–2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non-CC changes into a term proportional to the present-day vertical-velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi-uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Precipitation (meteorology); Tropics; Dynamic amplification; Extreme precipitation; Global climate model; Possible mechanisms; Precipitation change; Precipitation extremes; Precipitation variability; Recurrence intervals; Climate models; amplitude; climate modeling; damping; extreme event; global warming; Hadley cell; precipitation assessment; subtropical region
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170083
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Norris J.,Chen G.,Li C.. Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate[J],2020,47(14).
APA	Norris J.,Chen G.,&Li C..(2020).Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate.Geophysical Research Letters,47(14).
MLA	Norris J.,et al."Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate".Geophysical Research Letters 47.14(2020).