气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088662
	Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
	Roberts M.J.; Camp J.; Seddon J.; Vidale P.L.; Hodges K.; Vannière B.; Mecking J.; Haarsma R.; Bellucci A.; Scoccimarro E.; Caron L.-P.; Chauvin F.; Terray L.; Valcke S.; Moine M.-P.; Putrasahan D.; Roberts C.D.; Senan R.; Zarzycki C.; Ullrich P.; Yamada Y.; Mizuta R.; Kodama C.; Fu D.; Zhang Q.; Danabasoglu G.; Rosenbloom N.; Wang H.; Wu L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:14
英文摘要	Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. ©2020. Crown copyright.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Storms; Tracking (position); Tropics; Climate change impact; Coupled models; Coupled simulation; Multi-model ensemble; South Indian Ocean; Tracking algorithm; Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone activity; Hurricanes; algorithm; climate change; CMIP; experimental design; future prospect; spatial distribution; storm track; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (South)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170073
作者单位	Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Now at National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom; Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM-CERFACS), Toulouse, France; CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France; Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI-M), Hamburg, Germany; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roberts M.J.,Camp J.,Seddon J.,et al. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble[J],2020,47(14).
APA	Roberts M.J..,Camp J..,Seddon J..,Vidale P.L..,Hodges K..,...&Wu L..(2020).Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.Geophysical Research Letters,47(14).
MLA	Roberts M.J.,et al."Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble".Geophysical Research Letters 47.14(2020).