气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088854
	Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century
	Jahn A.; Laiho R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:15
英文摘要	Arctic liquid freshwater (FW) storage has shown a large increase over the past decades, posing the question: Is the Arctic FW budget already showing clear signs of anthropogenic climate change, or are the observed changes the result of multidecadal variability? We show that the observed change in liquid and solid Arctic FW storage is likely already driven by the changing climate, based on ensemble simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model. Generally, the emergence of forced changes in Arctic FW fluxes occurs earlier for oceanic fluxes than for atmospheric or land fluxes. Nares Strait liquid FW flux is the first flux to show emergence outside the range of background variability, with this change potentially already occurring. Other FW fluxes have likely started to shift but have not yet emerged into a completely different regime. Future emissions reductions have the potential to avoid the emergence of some FW fluxes beyond the background variability. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Budget control; Climate models; Liquids; Water; Anthropogenic climate changes; Changing climate; Emissions reduction; Ensemble simulation; Multidecadal variability; State of the art; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; freshwater; twenty first century; water budget; Arctic; Nares Strait
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169971
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jahn A.,Laiho R.. Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century[J],2020,47(15).
APA	Jahn A.,&Laiho R..(2020).Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century.Geophysical Research Letters,47(15).
MLA	Jahn A.,et al."Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21st Century".Geophysical Research Letters 47.15(2020).