气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL088679
	Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California
	Huang X.; Stevenson S.; Hall A.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:16
英文摘要	This study focuses on quantifying future anthropogenic changes in surface runoff associated with extreme precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada. The method involves driving a land surface model with output from a high resolution regional atmospheric simulation of the most extreme atmospheric rivers (ARs). AR events were selected from an ensemble of global climate model simulations of historical and late 21st century climate under the “high-emission” RCP8.5 scenario. Average precipitation during the future ARs increases by ~25% but a much lower proportion falls as snow. The resulting future runoff increase is dramatic—nearly 50%, reflecting both the precipitation increase and simultaneous conversion of snow to rain. The “double whammy” impact on runoff is largest in the 2,000–2,500 m elevation band, where the snowfall loss and precipitation increase are both especially large. This huge increase in runoff during the most extreme AR events could present major flood control challenges for the region. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Flood control; Rain; Runoff; Snow; Anthropogenic changes; Atmospheric simulations; Control challenges; Extreme precipitation; Global climate model simulations; High resolution; Land surface modeling; Precipitation extremes; Floods; atmospheric moisture; climate modeling; extreme event; flood control; flood damage; global climate; land surface; precipitation (climatology); runoff; twenty first century; warming; California; Sierra Nevada [California]; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169926
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang X.,Stevenson S.,Hall A.D.. Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California[J],2020,47(16).
APA	Huang X.,Stevenson S.,&Hall A.D..(2020).Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California.Geophysical Research Letters,47(16).
MLA	Huang X.,et al."Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California".Geophysical Research Letters 47.16(2020).