气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL088508
	Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections
	Yamagami A.; Matsueda M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:17
英文摘要	This study assesses the subseasonal predictability of the weekly mean geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa and its relationship to teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The skill over the North Pacific, Canada, and Greenland is higher than over other areas for weeks 3 and 4 forecasts. These peaks correspond to the centers of action for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PNA (NAO phase) predictions are better for El Niño years at lead times of 3–4 weeks (2–4 weeks). The effects of La Niña forcing on PNA and NAO forecasts are small compared with the El Niño forcing. Numerical models have a negative PNA bias at these lead times in La Niña years. Results suggest that the improvement in the midlatitude upper-level jet rather than in the response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation forcing in the tropics could lead to better S2S predictions. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Lanthanum; Atmospheric variability; Geopotential height anomalies; North American; North Atlantic oscillations; North Pacific; Northern Hemispheres; Southern oscillation; Teleconnections; Forecasting; air-sea interaction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; forecasting method; geopotential; jet flow; La Nina; midlatitude environment; North Atlantic Oscillation; Northern Hemisphere; seasonality; teleconnection; Arctic; Canada; Greenland; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169845
作者单位	Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yamagami A.,Matsueda M.. Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections[J],2020,47(17).
APA	Yamagami A.,&Matsueda M..(2020).Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections.Geophysical Research Letters,47(17).
MLA	Yamagami A.,et al."Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections".Geophysical Research Letters 47.17(2020).