气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL087900
	Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions
	Befort D.J.; O'Reilly C.H.; Weisheimer A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:18
英文摘要	There is increasing demand for robust, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). Thus, to provide seamless information for the upcoming 50 years, information from decadal predictions and uninitialized projections need to be merged. In this study, the ability to obtain valuable climate information beyond decadal time scales by constraining uninitialized projections using decadal predictions is assessed. The application of this framework to surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region, shows that the constrained uninitialized subensemble has higher skill compared to the overall projection ensemble also beyond 10 years when information from decadal predictions is no longer available. Though showing the potential of such a constraining approach to obtain climate information for the near-term future, its utility depends on the added value of initialization. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Earth sciences; Geophysics; Added values; Climate information; Decadal predictions; Decadal timescale; North Atlantic; Scientific community; Subpolar gyres; Surface temperatures; Forecasting; climate prediction; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; gyre; prediction; surface temperature; timescale; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169739
作者单位	Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Befort D.J.,O'Reilly C.H.,Weisheimer A.. Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions[J],2020,47(18).
APA	Befort D.J.,O'Reilly C.H.,&Weisheimer A..(2020).Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions.Geophysical Research Letters,47(18).
MLA	Befort D.J.,et al."Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions".Geophysical Research Letters 47.18(2020).