气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Statistical/Dynamical Model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089357
	A Statistical/Dynamical Model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
	Klotzbach P.J.; Caron L.-P.; Bell M.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:20
英文摘要	Colorado State University (CSU) has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984, with statistical modeling techniques primarily underpinning these outlooks. CSU has recently begun issuing statistical/dynamical forecasts, using the SEAS5 forecast system from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to forecast the three predictors that currently comprise CSU's early August statistical forecast model. SEAS5 shows skill at forecasting all three of these July predictors from an initialization as early as 1 March. The SEAS5 model forecasts for the three parameters are then regressed against seasonal accumulated cyclone energy. The model has a cross-validated correlation skill of r = 0.60 with accumulated cyclone energy for a 1 March initialization, improving to r = 0.67 for a 1 June initialization over the period from 1982–2019. The combination of the statistical/dynamical model with the currently existing statistical models shows improved skill over either model individually for the April, June, and July outlooks. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Hurricanes; Statistics; Storms; Accumulated cyclone energies; Colorado state universities; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts; Forecast systems; Hurricane prediction; Model forecasts; Statistical modeling; Three parameters; Weather forecasting; cyclone; hurricane; model; prediction; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; statistical analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Colorado; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169579
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Klotzbach P.J.,Caron L.-P.,Bell M.M.. A Statistical/Dynamical Model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction[J],2020,47(20).
APA	Klotzbach P.J.,Caron L.-P.,&Bell M.M..(2020).A Statistical/Dynamical Model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction.Geophysical Research Letters,47(20).
MLA	Klotzbach P.J.,et al."A Statistical/Dynamical Model for North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction".Geophysical Research Letters 47.20(2020).