气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL089183
	Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events
	Hennekam R.; van der Bolt B.; van Nes E.H.; de Lange G.J.; Scheffer M.; Reichart G.-J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:20
英文摘要	Predicting which marine systems are close to abrupt transitions into oxygen-deficient conditions (“anoxia”) is notoriously hard but important—as rising temperatures and coastal eutrophication drive many marine systems toward such tipping points. Rapid oxic-to-anoxic transitions occurred regularly within the eastern Mediterranean Sea on (multi)centennial time scales, and hence, its sedimentary archive allows exploring statistical methods that can indicate approaching tipping points. The here presented high-resolution reconstructions of past oxygen dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea reveal that early-warning signals in these deoxygenation time series occurred long before fast transitions to anoxia. These statistical indicators (i.e., rise in autocorrelation and variance) are hallmarks of so-called critical slowing down, signaling a steady loss of resilience of the oxygenated state as the system approaches a tipping point. Hence, even without precise knowledge of the mechanisms involved, early-warning signals for widespread anoxia in marine systems are recognizable using an appropriate statistical approach. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Oxygen; Abrupt transition; Coastal eutrophication; Critical slowing down; Eastern Mediterranean sea; High-resolution reconstruction; Rising temperatures; Statistical approach; Statistical indicators; Eutrophication; anoxic conditions; autocorrelation; early warning system; eutrophication; oxic conditions; oxygenation; prediction; resilience; sea surface temperature; statistical analysis; Mediterranean Sea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169539
作者单位	Department of Ocean Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and Utrecht University, Den Burg, Netherlands; Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hennekam R.,van der Bolt B.,van Nes E.H.,et al. Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events[J],2020,47(20).
APA	Hennekam R.,van der Bolt B.,van Nes E.H.,de Lange G.J.,Scheffer M.,&Reichart G.-J..(2020).Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events.Geophysical Research Letters,47(20).
MLA	Hennekam R.,et al."Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events".Geophysical Research Letters 47.20(2020).