气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090328
	Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020
	Lee S.H.; Lawrence Z.D.; Butler A.H.; Karpechko A.Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:21
英文摘要	The winter of 2019–2020 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from six different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January–March 2020 from forecasts launched through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous midlatitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Troposphere; Vortex flow; Arctic oscillations; Northern Hemispheres; Prediction systems; Seasonal forecasts; Stationary waves; Stratospheric polar vortex; Stratospheric vortex; Tropospheric waves; Forecasting; accuracy assessment; Arctic Oscillation; forecasting method; hindcasting; Northern Hemisphere; polar vortex; seasonality; stratosphere; troposphere
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169533
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, United States; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee S.H.,Lawrence Z.D.,Butler A.H.,et al. Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020[J],2020,47(21).
APA	Lee S.H.,Lawrence Z.D.,Butler A.H.,&Karpechko A.Y..(2020).Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020.Geophysical Research Letters,47(21).
MLA	Lee S.H.,et al."Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020".Geophysical Research Letters 47.21(2020).