气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090446
	On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards
	Angus M.; Leckebusch G.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:23
英文摘要	The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Forecasting; Atlantic hurricane; Extratropical; Extreme events; Hurricane activity; Intensity measure; Seasonal forecast models; Seasonal forecasting; Southern oscillation; Hurricanes; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; hazard assessment; hurricane; La Nina; probability; seasonality; storm damage; storm track; Atlantic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169319
作者单位	Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Angus M.,Leckebusch G.C.. On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards[J],2020,47(23).
APA	Angus M.,&Leckebusch G.C..(2020).On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards.Geophysical Research Letters,47(23).
MLA	Angus M.,et al."On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards".Geophysical Research Letters 47.23(2020).