气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020GL090255
	Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks
	McBeck J.A.; Aiken J.M.; Mathiesen J.; Ben-Zion Y.; Renard F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	47 期号:24
英文摘要	Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. The resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Deformation; Strain energy; Catastrophic failures; Crustal earthquakes; Fracture network; Machine learning models; Robust predictions; Strain energy density; Synchrotron X-ray tomography; Triaxial compression; Forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Geophysical Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169294
作者单位	Physics of Geological Processes, Department of Geosciences, The Njord Centre, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Physics, Center for Computing in Science Education, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East LansingMI, United States; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; University Grenoble Alpes, University Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, IRD, IFSTTAR, ISTerre, Grenoble, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	McBeck J.A.,Aiken J.M.,Mathiesen J.,et al. Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks[J],2020,47(24).
APA	McBeck J.A.,Aiken J.M.,Mathiesen J.,Ben-Zion Y.,&Renard F..(2020).Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks.Geophysical Research Letters,47(24).
MLA	McBeck J.A.,et al."Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks".Geophysical Research Letters 47.24(2020).