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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118141
	Predictability of PM2.5 in Seoul based on atmospheric blocking forecasts using the NCEP global forecast system
	Shin U.; Park S.-H.; Park J.-S.; Koo J.-H.; Yoo C.; Kim S.; Lee J.-B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	246
英文摘要	We investigate the predictability of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm) concentration in Seoul using atmospheric blocking forecasts during four winter seasons (December, January, and February) of 2015–2019. Atmospheric blocking is predicted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), and PM2.5 concentration in Seoul of the same period are obtained from the surface measurements of the National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER). We define blocking indices using two methods: the anomaly method and the gradient method. Correlation analysis establishes the relationship between the blocking and PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul. The result based on the anomaly method exhibits strong positive and negative correlation coefficients respectively over the East Sea and Japan and the vicinity of Lake Baikal. The correlation coefficient from the blocking index of the gradient method reveals a similar pattern, and the maximum values are found within the longitude range of 130–150°E Building on the relationship between PM2.5 in Seoul and the blocking index, we perform PM2.5 prediction using the GFS forecast of the atmospheric blocking index. The prediction shows reliable performance at least up to a five-day forecast. This atmospheric blocking based dynamical and statistical PM2.5 prediction can be a useful tool for mid-range PM2.5 forecast. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Gradient methods; Lakes; Surface measurement; Atmospheric blocking; Correlation analysis; Correlation coefficient; Environmental researches; Global forecast systems; National centers for environmental predictions; Negative correlation; Reliable performance; Weather forecasting; detection method; index method; particulate matter; prediction; seasonal variation; air quality; article; correlation analysis; correlation coefficient; Japan; longitude; particulate matter 2.5; prediction; South Korea; winter; Japan; Lake Baikal; Russian Federation; Sea of Japan; Seoul [South Korea]; South Korea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Atmospheric Environment
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/169051
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Global Environmental Laboratory, Yonsei UniversitySeoul, South Korea; Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering, Ewha Womans UniversitySeoul, South Korea; Department of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, South Korea; National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shin U.,Park S.-H.,Park J.-S.,et al. Predictability of PM2.5 in Seoul based on atmospheric blocking forecasts using the NCEP global forecast system[J],2021,246.
APA	Shin U..,Park S.-H..,Park J.-S..,Koo J.-H..,Yoo C..,...&Lee J.-B..(2021).Predictability of PM2.5 in Seoul based on atmospheric blocking forecasts using the NCEP global forecast system.Atmospheric Environment,246.
MLA	Shin U.,et al."Predictability of PM2.5 in Seoul based on atmospheric blocking forecasts using the NCEP global forecast system".Atmospheric Environment 246(2021).