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DOI | 10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7 |
Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments | |
Wang X.; Zhao C.; Müller C.; Wang C.; Ciais P.; Janssens I.; Peñuelas J.; Asseng S.; Li T.; Elliott J.; Huang Y.; Li L.; Piao S. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 2398-9629 |
起始页码 | 908 |
结束页码 | 916 |
卷号 | 3期号:11 |
英文摘要 | Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Crop model; Data constraints; Elevated CO2; Field data; Field experiment; Impact assessments; Yield loss; Yield reduction; Crops |
来源期刊 | Nature Sustainability |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163546 |
作者单位 | Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; CREAF, Barcelona, Spain; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Applied GeoSolutions, Durham, NH, United States; Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Researc... |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang X.,Zhao C.,Müller C.,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J],2020,3(11). |
APA | Wang X..,Zhao C..,Müller C..,Wang C..,Ciais P..,...&Piao S..(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.Nature Sustainability,3(11). |
MLA | Wang X.,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".Nature Sustainability 3.11(2020). |
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