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DOI10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments
Wang X.; Zhao C.; Müller C.; Wang C.; Ciais P.; Janssens I.; Peñuelas J.; Asseng S.; Li T.; Elliott J.; Huang Y.; Li L.; Piao S.
发表日期2020
ISSN2398-9629
起始页码908
结束页码916
卷号3期号:11
英文摘要Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种英语
scopus关键词Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Crop model; Data constraints; Elevated CO2; Field data; Field experiment; Impact assessments; Yield loss; Yield reduction; Crops
来源期刊Nature Sustainability
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163546
作者单位Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; CREAF, Barcelona, Spain; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Applied GeoSolutions, Durham, NH, United States; Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Researc...
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Wang X.,Zhao C.,Müller C.,et al. Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments[J],2020,3(11).
APA Wang X..,Zhao C..,Müller C..,Wang C..,Ciais P..,...&Piao S..(2020).Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments.Nature Sustainability,3(11).
MLA Wang X.,et al."Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments".Nature Sustainability 3.11(2020).
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