气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-018-0063-7
	Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways
	Turner P.A.; Field C.B.; Lobell D.B.; Sanchez D.L.; Mach K.J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	240
结束页码	245
卷号	1 期号:5
英文摘要	Integrated assessment models generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2 °C, cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of CO2 removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly CDR from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. While these assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature targets in reach, the associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. Here, we view implied integrated-assessment-model land-use conversion rates within a historical context. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2 °C in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS proceeds at a median rate of 8.8 Mha yr -1 and 8.4% yr -1 . This rate exceeds - by more than threefold - the observed expansion of soybean, the most rapidly expanding commodity crop. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Historical land-use transformation rates do not represent an upper bound for future transformation rates. However, their stark contrast with modelled BECCS deployment rates implies challenges to explore in harnessing - or presuming the ready availability of - large-scale biomass-based CDR in the decades ahead. Reducing BECCS deployment to remain within these historical expansion rates would mean either the 2 °C target is missed or additional mitigation would need to occur elsewhere. © 2018 The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biomass; Carbon capture; Climate models; Clock and data recovery circuits (CDR circuits); Cost effectiveness; Deforestation; Expansion; Land use; Reforestation; Climate change mitigation; Conversion rates; Cost effective; Deployment rates; Expansion rate; Global temperatures; Integrated assessment models; Transformation rates; Climate change
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/163524
作者单位	Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, United States; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Turner P.A.,Field C.B.,Lobell D.B.,et al. Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways[J],2018,1(5).
APA	Turner P.A.,Field C.B.,Lobell D.B.,Sanchez D.L.,&Mach K.J..(2018).Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways.Nature Sustainability,1(5).
MLA	Turner P.A.,et al."Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways".Nature Sustainability 1.5(2018).