气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the response of hydrological regimes to future projections of precipitation and temperature over the upper Yangtze River

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104627
	Estimating the response of hydrological regimes to future projections of precipitation and temperature over the upper Yangtze River
	Yang X.; Yu X.; Wang Y.; Liu Y.; Zhang M.; Ren L.; Yuan F.; Jiang S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	230
英文摘要	The upper region of the Yangtze River, as the freshwater source for the middle and lower Yangtze River, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Understanding and projecting the spatiotemporal variability of extreme flows in this region are key to creating appropriate adaptation policies and strategies. In this study, climate change signals were scaled from seven bias-corrected CMIP5 models and were used to force a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to quantify and assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the region. The respective contribution of precipitation (P) and temperature (T) to evapotranspiration (ET) and hydrological regimes (annual mean runoff, high flow, and low flow) were also quantified using the analysis of variance method (ANOVA). For the scenario period (2031–2060), the projected runoff is projected to increase in vary between 11.33% and 64.08% in winter, while increases in summer range from 8.64% to 40.97%. The changes in ET are different depending on the climate mode used; these increase during winter and decrease in summer under the influence of temperature. In addition, we found that low flows are projected to decrease while the mean annual runoff will increase in the future period. These projected changes demonstrated that temperature effects dominate in the study area for the future period under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. © 2019
英文关键词	ANOVA method; Climate change signal; Delta change method; Hydrological regimes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Analysis of variance (ANOVA); Climate models; Rivers; Runoff; Adaptation policies; Analysis of variance method; Delta change method; Hydrological regime; Mean annual runoffs; Middle and lower yangtze rivers; Spatiotemporal variability; Variable infiltration capacity models; Climate change; climate change; CMIP; coastal morphology; evapotranspiration; future prospect; hydrological modeling; hydrological regime; precipitation (climatology); temperature; variance analysis; China; Yangtze River
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162309
作者单位	College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang X.,Yu X.,Wang Y.,et al. Estimating the response of hydrological regimes to future projections of precipitation and temperature over the upper Yangtze River[J],2019,230.
APA	Yang X..,Yu X..,Wang Y..,Liu Y..,Zhang M..,...&Jiang S..(2019).Estimating the response of hydrological regimes to future projections of precipitation and temperature over the upper Yangtze River.Atmospheric Research,230.
MLA	Yang X.,et al."Estimating the response of hydrological regimes to future projections of precipitation and temperature over the upper Yangtze River".Atmospheric Research 230(2019).