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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.034
	Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries
	Wahiduzzaman M.; Yeasmin A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	89
结束页码	100
卷号	227
英文摘要	This paper investigates the forecast potential of tropical cyclone (TC)landfall probabilities over the North Indian Ocean (NIO)rim countries using ocean-climate predictor variables in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the landfall probabilities for a period of 35 years of TC observations (1979–2013)from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the predictor variables include sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index and ocean heat content. Poisson regression was found skilful in hindcasting of tropical cyclone landfall frequency for the NIO region with a correlation coefficient in the forecasted hindcast time series of 0.65 and 31% improvement above climatology. In the present study, genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalised additive model (GAM)approach with a Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. This GAM model that is previously demonstrated very skilful to simulate TC landfall across the NIO rim countries by Wahiduzzaman et al. (2017, 2019)deems skilful for this study. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Generalised Additive Model; North Indian Ocean; Poisson Regression; Statistical forecasting; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Additives; Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Forecasting; Hurricanes; Poisson distribution; Regression analysis; Storms; Surface waters; Tropics; Generalised additive models; North indian oceans; Poisson regression; Statistical forecasting; Tropical cyclone; Oceanography; regression analysis; statistical analysis; storm track; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162270
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; SPACE Research Centre, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia; Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science & Technology University, Gopalganj, Bangladesh
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahiduzzaman M.,Yeasmin A.. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries[J],2019,227.
APA	Wahiduzzaman M.,&Yeasmin A..(2019).Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries.Atmospheric Research,227.
MLA	Wahiduzzaman M.,et al."Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries".Atmospheric Research 227(2019).