气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105375
	Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China
	Su B.; Huang J.; Mondal S.K.; Zhai J.; Wang Y.; Wen S.; Gao M.; Lv Y.; Jiang S.; Jiang T.; Li A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
英文摘要	In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a “strange phenomenon”, which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional “possible future”-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	China; Climatic change; CMIP6; Drought; SSP-RCPs
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Evapotranspiration; Rivers; Watersheds; Comparison analysis; Drought characteristics; Emission scenario; Extreme climates; Pearl River basin; Potential evapotranspiration; Robust capability; Yangtze River basin; Climate models
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162235
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su B.,Huang J.,Mondal S.K.,et al. Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China[J],2020.
APA	Su B..,Huang J..,Mondal S.K..,Zhai J..,Wang Y..,...&Li A..(2020).Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China.Atmospheric Research.
MLA	Su B.,et al."Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China".Atmospheric Research (2020).