气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Performance evaluation of WRF for extreme flood forecasts in a coastal urban environment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.005
	Performance evaluation of WRF for extreme flood forecasts in a coastal urban environment
	Patel P.; Ghosh S.; Kaginalkar A.; Islam S.; Karmakar S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	39
结束页码	48
卷号	223
英文摘要	Increasing incidences of flash floods highlight the need for a reliable flood forecasting system to minimize the losses of lives and property. The most formidable challenge of flood forecasting is the availability of high resolution and accurate precipitation forecast despite having a sophisticated 3-ways flood hydrodynamic model. Global rainfall forecasting products are of coarse resolution, which makes them less reliable for urban flood forecasting. Therefore, high-resolution regional weather forecasting models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to generate fine-scale rainfall estimates. Precipitation forecasting from the WRF model is highly dependent on model configuration, especially cumulus (CU) parameterization and microphysics (MP) schemes. In the present study, three physics schemes that include two urban, four CU and three MP schemes of WRF model are investigated for extreme precipitation estimates. The six events comprised of two of the highest rainfall events of the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 have been selected for investigation over Mumbai, India. The events are simulated using initial and boundary conditions from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis dataset. The simulated rainfall events are evaluated against the observations from 28 automatic weather stations over Mumbai. The analysis suggests that building environment parameterization (BEP) scheme influences the spatial pattern of the rainfall along with the reduction in rainfall bias. Further, CU schemes affect the magnitude of the rainfall while MP schemes have a lesser impact than the former. WRF simulations with BEP urban scheme, Grell-Devenyi 3D CU, and Lin MP scheme performs best (out of selected combinations). Besides, the best performing scheme has been tested with initial and boundary conditions from the global forecasting system (GFS) for the same events; the results have shown improved rainfall estimates than the GFS forecasts. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Cumulus schemes; Extreme precipitation; Flood forecasting; Microphysics schemes; Urban canopy model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Boundary conditions; Clouds; Flood control; Floods; Rain; Weather information services; Cumulus schemes; Extreme precipitation; Flood forecasting; Microphysics; Urban canopy models; Weather forecasting; climate modeling; cloud microphysics; coastal zone; cumulus; extreme event; flash flood; flood forecasting; hydrodynamics; performance assessment; precipitation intensity; urban area; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/162185
作者单位	IDP in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India; Computational Earth Science Group, Centre for Development of Advanced Computing Pune, India; Centre for Environmental Science & Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Patel P.,Ghosh S.,Kaginalkar A.,et al. Performance evaluation of WRF for extreme flood forecasts in a coastal urban environment[J],2019,223.
APA	Patel P.,Ghosh S.,Kaginalkar A.,Islam S.,&Karmakar S..(2019).Performance evaluation of WRF for extreme flood forecasts in a coastal urban environment.Atmospheric Research,223.
MLA	Patel P.,et al."Performance evaluation of WRF for extreme flood forecasts in a coastal urban environment".Atmospheric Research 223(2019).