气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.02.009
	Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan
	Ali S.; Eum H.-I.; Cho J.; Dan L.; Khan F.; Dairaku K.; Shrestha M.L.; Hwang S.; Nasim W.; Khan I.A.; Fahad S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0169-8095
起始页码	114
结束页码	133
卷号	222
英文摘要	Climate change is a phenomenon that is unequivocally altering the natural systems in all parts of the world but the alteration in climate extremes may pose more severe and unexpected impacts on Pakistan. The current study provides a comprehensive outlook of observation (1976–2005) and changes in climate extremes between the reference (1976–2005) and future periods (2020s: 2006–2035, 2050s: 2036–2065 and 2080s: 2066–2095). The analysis was conducted across six sub-regions of Pakistan including North Pakistan (NP), Monsoon Region (MR), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Southern Punjab (SP), Balochistan and Sindh for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 were downscaled and bias corrected by three statistical downscaling methods. The spatial disaggregation and quantile delta mapping (SDQDM) method was used for future projections in this study. Changes in climate extremes were detected by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case of temperature, the results indicate a projected increase in frequencies and magnitudes for warm extremes, while it is decreasing for cold extremes in the 21st century. The corresponding trends of maximum and minimum temperature extremes are greater than the mean temperature trend; where the frequency and magnitude of minimum temperature extremes is higher than maximum temperature extremes over Pakistan particularly over North in last half of the 21st century for both RCPs. Also, the average of temperature extremes (TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn) are severe in the order of NP (+4.8 °C), KP (+4.6 °C) and MR (+4.5 °C). In the case of precipitation extremes, most of the sub-regions across Pakistan show a higher increase in total annual precipitation and intense precipitation events with the highest increase in MR, KP and NP and the least increase in Sindh. Despite the increase in total precipitation, numbers of consecutive dry days (CDD) are increasing while consecutive wet days (CWD) are decreasing which can give rise to drought conditions particularly in Sindh. The study provides complementary and consistent climate extremes information over Pakistan for local decision makers to incorporate into policy-making, disaster management, and infrastructure planning. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Bias correction; Extreme events; Global climate models; Statistical downscaling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Disaster prevention; Disasters; Statistical methods; Bias correction; Climate change detection; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Extreme events; General circulation model; Global climate model; Maximum and minimum temperatures; Statistical downscaling; Climate change; atmospheric correction; climate change; climate modeling; downscaling; extreme event; future prospect; Pakistan
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/161992
作者单位	Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan; Environmental Monitoring and Science Division, Alberta Environment and Parks, Canada; Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese academy of sciences, Beijing, China; School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Science and Technology (NUST), H-12 Sector, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan; Disaster Prevention Research Group, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; Nepal Academy of Science and Technology Kathmandu, Nepal; Department of Agricultural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, South Korea; Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus61100, Pakistan; Department of Agriculture, University of Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ali S.,Eum H.-I.,Cho J.,et al. Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan[J],2019,222.
APA	Ali S..,Eum H.-I..,Cho J..,Dan L..,Khan F..,...&Fahad S..(2019).Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan.Atmospheric Research,222.
MLA	Ali S.,et al."Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan".Atmospheric Research 222(2019).