气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1913007117
	Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival
	Román-Palacios C.; Wiens J.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	4211
结束页码	4217
卷号	117 期号:8
英文摘要	Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57–70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16–30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Disperal; Extinction; Niche shift
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; biodiversity; climate change; ecological niche; environmental temperature; nonhuman; plant; population dispersal; prediction; priority journal; species extinction; species identification; survival; survival analysis; animal; animal dispersal; classification; ecosystem; heat; plant development; Animal Distribution; Animals; Biodiversity; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Extinction, Biological; Hot Temperature; Plant Development; Plants
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/161042
作者单位	Román-Palacios, C., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Wiens, J.J., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Román-Palacios C.,Wiens J.J.. Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival[J],2020,117(8).
APA	Román-Palacios C.,&Wiens J.J..(2020).Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(8).
MLA	Román-Palacios C.,et al."Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.8(2020).