气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1913678117
	The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
	van der Bles A.M.; van der Linden S.; Freeman A.L.J.; Spiegelhalter D.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	7672
结束页码	7683
卷号	117 期号:14
英文摘要	Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the “posttruth” era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims. We conducted five experiments-including one preregistered replication with a national sample and one field experiment on the BBC News website (total n = 5,780)-to examine whether communicating epistemic uncertainty about facts across different topics (e.g., global warming, immigration), formats (verbal vs. numeric), and magnitudes (high vs. low) influences public trust. Results show that whereas people do perceive greater uncertainty when it is communicated, we observed only a small decrease in trust in numbers and trustworthiness of the source, and mostly for verbal uncertainty communication. These results could help reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Communication; Contested; Posttruth; Trust; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; field experiment; greenhouse effect; human; human experiment; immigration; major clinical study; trust; uncertainty; Internet; interpersonal communication; meta analysis (topic); Communication; Humans; Internet; Meta-Analysis as Topic; Trust; Uncertainty
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/161001
作者单位	van der Bles, A.M., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Social Psychology, University of Groningen, Groningen, 19712 TS, Netherlands; van der Linden, S., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3RQ, United Kingdom; Freeman, A.L.J., Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, United Kingdom; Spiegelhalter, D.J., Winton Centre for Risk and...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Bles A.M.,van der Linden S.,Freeman A.L.J.,et al. The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers[J],2020,117(14).
APA	van der Bles A.M.,van der Linden S.,Freeman A.L.J.,&Spiegelhalter D.J..(2020).The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(14).
MLA	van der Bles A.M.,et al."The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.14(2020).