气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future of the human climate niche

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1910114117
	Future of the human climate niche
	Xu C.; Kohler T.A.; Lenton T.M.; Svenning J.-C.; Scheffer M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	117 期号:21
英文摘要	All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate; Migration; Societies
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural procedures; Article; climate; climate change; ecological niche; evolutionary adaptation; geographic distribution; geology; greenhouse effect; human; humanities; mean annual temperature; migration; population distribution; population dynamics; population growth; priority journal; temperature; Africa; agriculture; animal; climate change; data mining; livestock; population density; population dynamics; Africa, Northern; Agriculture; Animals; Climate Change; Data Mining; Human Migration; Humans; Livestock; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Temperature
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160944
作者单位	Xu, C., School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; Kohler, T.A., Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, United States, Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, United States, Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321, United States, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, 603-8047, Japan; Lenton, T.M., Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; Svenning, J.-C., Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in A Changing World, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; Scheffer, M., Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, United States, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL-6700 AA, Netherlands, SARAS (South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies), Bella Vista, Maldonado, 10302, Uruguay
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu C.,Kohler T.A.,Lenton T.M.,et al. Future of the human climate niche[J],2020,117(21).
APA	Xu C.,Kohler T.A.,Lenton T.M.,Svenning J.-C.,&Scheffer M..(2020).Future of the human climate niche.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(21).
MLA	Xu C.,et al."Future of the human climate niche".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.21(2020).