气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1920816117
	Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia
	Zohner C.M.; Mo L.; Renner S.S.; Svenning J.-C.; Vitasse Y.; Benito B.M.; Ordonez A.; Baumgarten F.; Bastin J.-F.; Sebald V.; Reich P.B.; Liang J.; Nabuurs G.-J.; De-Migueln S.; Alberti G.; Antón-Fernández C.; Balazy R.; Brändli U.-B.; Chen H.Y.H.; Chisholm C.; Cienciala E.; Dayanandan S.; Fayle T.M.; Frizzera L.; Gianelle D.; Jagodzinski A.M.; Jaroszewicz B.; Jucker T.; Kepfer-Rojas S.; Khan M.L.; Kim H.S.; Korjus H.; Johannsen V.K.; Laarmann D.; Langn M.; Zawila-Niedzwiecki T.; Niklaus P.A.; Paquette A.; Pretzsch H.; Saikia P.; Schall P.; Seben V.; Svoboda M.; Tikhonova E.; Viana H.; Zhang C.; Zhao X.; Crowther T.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	117 期号:22
英文摘要	Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Freezing damage; Late frost; Phenology; Spring leaf-out
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agriculture; air temperature; article; Asia; climate change; decision making; Europe; forestry; freezing tolerance; human cell; insurance; land use; North America; Northern Hemisphere; phenology; plant leaf; scrub; spring; temperate deciduous forest; warming; Asia; cold; Europe; forest; growth, development and aging; North America; phenotype; plant leaf; season; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature; tree; Asia; Climate Change; Cold Temperature; Europe; Forests; North America; Phenotype; Plant Leaves; Seasons; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Temperature; Trees
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160939
作者单位	Zohner, C.M., Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Mo, L., Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Renner, S.S., Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, 80638, Germany; Svenning, J.-C., Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark, Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; Vitasse, Y., Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland; Benito, B.M., Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway; Ordonez, A., Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark, Section for ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zohner C.M.,Mo L.,Renner S.S.,et al. Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia[J],2020,117(22).
APA	Zohner C.M..,Mo L..,Renner S.S..,Svenning J.-C..,Vitasse Y..,...&Crowther T.W..(2020).Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(22).
MLA	Zohner C.M.,et al."Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.22(2020).