气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1920849117
	Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades
	Kossin J.P.; Knapp K.R.; Olander T.L.; Velden C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	117 期号:22
英文摘要	Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate; Hurricane; Intensity; Trend; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate; computer simulation; expectation; probability; theoretical study; warming; hurricane
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160935
作者单位	Kossin, J.P., Center for Weather and Climate, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Knapp, K.R., Center for Weather and Climate, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, NC 28801, United States; Olander, T.L., Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Velden, C.S., Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kossin J.P.,Knapp K.R.,Olander T.L.,et al. Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades[J],2020,117(22).
APA	Kossin J.P.,Knapp K.R.,Olander T.L.,&Velden C.S..(2020).Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(22).
MLA	Kossin J.P.,et al."Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.22(2020).