气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1916545117
	Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse
	Barfuss W.; Donges J.F.; Vasconcelos V.V.; Kurths J.; Levin S.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	12915
结束页码	12922
卷号	117 期号:23
英文摘要	We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social–ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements.This work was developed in the context of the project on Coevolutionary Pathways in the Earth System at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), within the Princeton–Humboldt Cooperation and Collective Cognition Network, and the Princeton–Stockholm Resilience Centre–PIK Resilience Network. This work emerged from one chapter of the doctoral dissertation of W.B. W.B. acknowledges funding from the Heinrich Böll Foundation. J.F.D. acknowledges funding from Earth League’s EarthDoc program, European Research Council Advanced Grant Project Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, and Leibniz Association Project DominoES (Domino effects in the Earth system). V.V.V. acknowledges funding from the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, Rapid Switch Community. S.A.L. and V.V.V. acknowledge funding by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (D17AC00005) and the NSF Grant GEO-1211972. We thank Jobst Heitzig for insightful discussions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Social dilemma; Stochastic game; Time preferences; Tipping element
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; care behavior; climate change; clinical outcome; collapse; coordination; disaster; ecology; environmental impact; game; priority journal; social aspect; stochastic model; time factor
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160925
作者单位	Barfuss, W., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, 04103, Germany, Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, 12489, Germany; Donges, J.F., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 11419, Sweden; Vasconcelos, V.V., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kurths, J., Complexity...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barfuss W.,Donges J.F.,Vasconcelos V.V.,et al. Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse[J],2020,117(23).
APA	Barfuss W.,Donges J.F.,Vasconcelos V.V.,Kurths J.,&Levin S.A..(2020).Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(23).
MLA	Barfuss W.,et al."Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.23(2020).