气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1713628115
	Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
	Christensen P.; Gillingham K.; Nordhaus W.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	5409
结束页码	5414
卷号	115 期号:21
英文摘要	Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010–2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Economic productivity; Forecast uncertainty; Greenhouse gas emissions; Long-run growth
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; China; climate change; controlled study; economic development; forecasting; gross national product; high income country; low income country; middle income country; priority journal; probability; social insurance; statistical model; uncertainty; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160514
作者单位	Christensen, P., Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Gillingham, K., School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States, School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States; Nordhaus, W., Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christensen P.,Gillingham K.,Nordhaus W.. Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth[J],2018,115(21).
APA	Christensen P.,Gillingham K.,&Nordhaus W..(2018).Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,115(21).
MLA	Christensen P.,et al."Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.21(2018).