气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-957-2018
	A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations
	O'Brien G.C.; Dickens C.; Hines E.; Wepener V.; Stassen R.; Quayle L.; Fouchy K.; Mackenzie J.; Graham P.M.; Landis W.G.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	957
结束页码	975
卷号	22 期号:2
英文摘要	Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements. © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Bayesian networks; Catchments; Decision making; Ecology; Economic and social effects; Environmental management; Runoff; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Water resources; Adaptive Management; Ecological endpoints; Ecological risk assessment; Further development; Management decision-making; Probabilistic modelling; Protection requirements; Relative risk models; Risk assessment; adaptive management; assessment method; decision making; environmental management; environmental risk; resource use; risk assessment; Africa
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160172
作者单位	O'Brien, G.C., University of KwaZulu-Natal, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, School of Life Sciences, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, South Africa; Dickens, C., International Water Management Institute, Private Bag X813, Silverton, 0127, South Africa; Hines, E., Western Washington University, Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Bellingham, WA, United States; Wepener, V., Water Research Group (Ecology), Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Private Bag x6001, Potchefstroom, 2520, South Africa; Stassen, R., University of KwaZulu-Natal, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, School of Life Sciences, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, South Africa; Quayle, L., Institute of Natural Resources NPC, or2 P.O. Box 100 396, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa; Fouchy, K., IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, Delft, 2601 DA, Netherlands; Mackenzie, J., University of KwaZulu-Natal, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, School of Life Scie...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	O'Brien G.C.,Dickens C.,Hines E.,et al. A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations[J],2018,22(2).
APA	O'Brien G.C..,Dickens C..,Hines E..,Wepener V..,Stassen R..,...&Landis W.G..(2018).A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(2).
MLA	O'Brien G.C.,et al."A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.2(2018).