气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018
	Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)
	Förster K.; Hanzer F.; Stoll E.; Scaife A.A.; MacLachlan C.; Schöber J.; Huttenlau M.; Achleitner S.; Strasser U.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1157
结束页码	1173
卷号	22 期号:2
英文摘要	This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r D0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r D0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible. © 2018 Author.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Snow; Coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model; Hydrological modeling; Meteorological fields; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal prediction; Snow water equivalent; Water balance simulation; Winter snow accumulation; Climate models; benchmarking; estimation method; forecasting method; general circulation model; headwater; precipitation (climatology); prediction; snow accumulation; snow water equivalent; snowpack; water budget; winter; Alps; Europe
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160122
作者单位	Förster, K., Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Hanover, Germany, Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria, Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Hanzer, F., Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Stoll, E., Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria; Scaife, A.A., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; MacLachlan, C., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Schöber, J., TIWAG, Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, Innsbruck, Austria; Huttenlau, M., Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria; Achleitner, S., Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, Institute of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Strasser, U., Institute of Geography, U...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Förster K.,Hanzer F.,Stoll E.,et al. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)[J],2018,22(2).
APA	Förster K..,Hanzer F..,Stoll E..,Scaife A.A..,MacLachlan C..,...&Strasser U..(2018).Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps).Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(2).
MLA	Förster K.,et al."Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.2(2018).