气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-1957-2018
	Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment
	Jha S.K.; Shrestha D.L.; Stadnyk T.A.; Coulibaly P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1957
结束页码	1969
卷号	22 期号:3
英文摘要	Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. Hydrologic forecast centers rely on precipitation forecasts obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to enforce hydrological models for streamflow forecasting. The uncertainties in raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are enhanced by physiography and orography effects over a diverse landscape, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. A Bayesian post-processing approach called rainfall post-processing (RPP), developed in Australia (Robertson et al., 2013; Shrestha et al., 2015), has been applied to assess its forecast performance in a Canadian catchment. Raw QPFs obtained from two sources, Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast 2 project, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS), from Environment and Climate Change Canada, are used in this study. The study period from January 2013 to December 2015 covered a major flood event in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Post-processed results show that the RPP is able to remove the bias and reduce the errors of both GEFS and GDPS forecasts. Ensembles generated from the RPP reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. ©Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Floods; Rain; Runoff; Weather forecasting; Deterministic forecasts; Ensemble forecasting; Forecast performance; National centers for environmental predictions; Numerical weather prediction models; Precipitation forecast; Quantitative precipitation forecast; Streamflow forecasting; Catchments; catchment; climate change; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; flooding; hydrological modeling; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; snowmelt; streamflow; Alberta; Australia; Calgary; Canada
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160073
作者单位	Jha, S.K., Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, R3T 5V6, Canada, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, 462066, India; Shrestha, D.L., Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization, Clayton, VIC 3169, Australia; Stadnyk, T.A., Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, R3T 5V6, Canada; Coulibaly, P., Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, L8S 4L7, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jha S.K.,Shrestha D.L.,Stadnyk T.A.,et al. Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment[J],2018,22(3).
APA	Jha S.K.,Shrestha D.L.,Stadnyk T.A.,&Coulibaly P..(2018).Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(3).
MLA	Jha S.K.,et al."Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.3(2018).