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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
	Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
	Arnal L.; Cloke H.L.; Stephens E.; Wetterhall F.; Prudhomme C.; Neumann J.; Krzeminski B.; Pappenberger F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2057
结束页码	2072
卷号	22 期号:4
英文摘要	This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40% of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based seasonal streamflow forecasting. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Stream flow; Awareness systems; Meteorological observation; Meteorological variables; Seasonal climate forecast; Seasonal forecasts; Streamflow forecast; Streamflow forecasting; Streamflow prediction; Weather forecasting; benchmarking; decision making; forecasting method; hydrological modeling; prediction; seasonal variation; streamflow; Europe
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160067
作者单位	Arnal, L., Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, United Kingdom, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG6 9AX, United Kingdom; Cloke, H.L., Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, United Kingdom, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden, Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, CNDS, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden; Stephens, E., Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, United Kingdom; Wetterhall, F., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG6 9AX, United Kingdom; Prudhomme, C., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG6 9AX, United Kingdom, Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Ki...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arnal L.,Cloke H.L.,Stephens E.,et al. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?[J],2018,22(4).
APA	Arnal L..,Cloke H.L..,Stephens E..,Wetterhall F..,Prudhomme C..,...&Pappenberger F..(2018).Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(4).
MLA	Arnal L.,et al."Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.4(2018).