气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
	The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers
	Foster K.; Uvo C.B.; Olsson J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2953
结束页码	2970
卷号	22 期号:5
英文摘要	Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. However, the distribution of the water resources is not aligned with demand, as most of the inflows to the reservoirs occur during the spring flood period. This means that carefully planned reservoir management is required to help redistribute water resources to ensure optimal production and accurate forecasts of the spring flood volume (SFV) is essential for this. The current operational SFV forecasts use a historical ensemble approach where the HBV model is forced with historical observations of precipitation and temperature. In this work we develop and test a multi-model prototype, building on previous work, and evaluate its ability to forecast the SFV in 84 sub-basins in northern Sweden. The hypothesis explored in this work is that a multi-model seasonal forecast system incorporating different modelling approaches is generally more skilful at forecasting the SFV in snow dominated regions than a forecast system that utilises only one approach. The testing is done using cross-validated hindcasts for the period 1981-2015 and the results are evaluated against both climatology and the current system to determine skill. Both the multi-model methods considered showed skill over the reference forecasts. The version that combined the historical modelling chain, dynamical modelling chain, and statistical modelling chain performed better than the other and was chosen for the prototype. The prototype was able to outperform the current operational system 57% of the time on average and reduce the error in the SFV by ∼ 6% across all sub-basins and forecast dates. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Chains; Floods; Forecasting; Reservoir management; Reservoirs (water); Cross-validated hindcasts; Ensemble approaches; Historical observation; Multi-model method; Operational systems; Optimal production; Seasonal forecasts; Statistical modelling; Water resources; accuracy assessment; air temperature; basin management; demand analysis; flood; forecasting method; hindcasting; hydrological modeling; inflow; model validation; precipitation (climatology); prediction; river basin; spring (season); water resource; Sweden; Hepatitis B virus; Rabbit fibroma virus
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160020
作者单位	Foster, K., Research and Development (Hydrology), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Box 118, Lund, 221 00, Sweden; Uvo, C.B., Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Box 118, Lund, 221 00, Sweden; Olsson, J., Research and Development (Hydrology), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Foster K.,Uvo C.B.,Olsson J.. The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers[J],2018,22(5).
APA	Foster K.,Uvo C.B.,&Olsson J..(2018).The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(5).
MLA	Foster K.,et al."The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.5(2018).