气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018
	The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe
	Wetterhall F.; Di Giuseppe F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3409
结束页码	3420
卷号	22 期号:6
英文摘要	Two different systems provide long-range forecasts at ECMWF. On the sub-seasonal timescale, ECMWF issues an extended-range ensemble prediction system (ENS-ER) which runs a 46-day forecast integration issued twice weekly. On longer timescales, the current seasonal forecasting system (SYS4) produces a 7-month outlook starting from the first of each month. SYS4 uses an older model version and has lower spatial and temporal resolution than ENS-ER, which is issued with the current operational ensemble forecasting system. Given the substantial differences between the ENS-ER and the SYS4 configurations and the difficulties of creating a seamless integration, applications that rely on weather forcing as input such as the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) often follow the route of the creation of two separate systems for different forecast horizons. This study evaluates the benefit of a seamless integration of the two systems for hydrological applications and shows that the seamless system outperforms SYS4 in terms of skill for the first 4 weeks, but both forecasts are biased. The benefit of the new seamless system when compared to the seasonal forecast can be attributed to (1) the use of a more recent model version in the sub-seasonal range (first 46 days) and (2) the much more frequent updates of the meteorological forecast. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Integration; Ensemble forecasting; Ensemble prediction systems; Hydrological prediction; Long-range forecasts; Seamless integration; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal forecasts; Spatial and temporal resolutions; Weather forecasting; ensemble forecasting; hydrological cycle; long range forecast; prediction; seasonal variation; spatial resolution; timescale; Europe
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159995
作者单位	Wetterhall, F., European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Di Giuseppe, F., European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wetterhall F.,Di Giuseppe F.. The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe[J],2018,22(6).
APA	Wetterhall F.,&Di Giuseppe F..(2018).The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(6).
MLA	Wetterhall F.,et al."The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.6(2018).