气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-4125-2018
	Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment
	Perra E.; Piras M.; Deidda R.; Paniconi C.; Mascaro G.; Vivoni E.R.; Cau P.; Marras P.A.; Ludwig R.; Meyer S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4125
结束页码	4143
卷号	22 期号:7
英文摘要	This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models-CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM)-are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables-discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration-are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM). © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Catchments; Climate change; Correlation methods; Evapotranspiration; Rain; Runoff; Soil moisture; Water supply; Actual evapotranspiration; Calibration and validations; Kinematic approximations; Mediterranean catchment; Pearson correlation coefficients; Soil and water assessment tool; TIN-based real time integrated basin simulators (tRIBS); Water balance simulation; Climate models; assessment method; catchment; climate change; climate effect; climate forcing; climate modeling; discharge; evapotranspiration; hydrological change; hydrological modeling; rainfall; soil water; streamflow; water availability; water budget; Italy; Mediterranean Region; Sardinia
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159955
作者单位	Perra, E., Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Ambientale Ed Architettura, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy, Centre EAU Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Quebec City, Canada; Piras, M., Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Ambientale Ed Architettura, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy, Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Fisica Dell'Atmosfere e Dell'Idrosfere, Tolentino, Italy; Deidda, R., Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Ambientale Ed Architettura, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy, Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Fisica Dell'Atmosfere e Dell'Idrosfere, Tolentino, Italy; Paniconi, C., Centre EAU Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Quebec City, Canada; Mascaro, G., Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Fisica Dell'Atmosfere e Dell'Idrosfere, Tolentino, Italy, School of Sustainable Engineering, Built Environment and School of Earth and Space Exploration, Ariz...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Perra E.,Piras M.,Deidda R.,et al. Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment[J],2018,22(7).
APA	Perra E..,Piras M..,Deidda R..,Paniconi C..,Mascaro G..,...&Meyer S..(2018).Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(7).
MLA	Perra E.,et al."Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.7(2018).