气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Incremental model breakdown to assess the multi-hypotheses problem

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-4565-2018
	Incremental model breakdown to assess the multi-hypotheses problem
	Jehn F.U.; Breuer L.; Houska T.; Bestian K.; Kraft P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4565
结束页码	4581
卷号	22 期号:8
英文摘要	The ambiguous representation of hydrological processes has led to the formulation of the multiple hypotheses approach in hydrological modeling, which requires new ways of model construction. However, most recent studies focus only on the comparison of predefined model structures or building a model step by step. This study tackles the problem the other way around: we start with one complex model structure, which includes all processes deemed to be important for the catchment. Next, we create 13 additional simplified models, where some of the processes from the starting structure are disabled. The performance of those models is evaluated using three objective functions (logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe; percentage bias, PBIAS; and the ratio between the root mean square error and the standard deviation of the measured data). Through this incremental breakdown, we identify the most important processes and detect the restraining ones. This procedure allows constructing a more streamlined, subsequent 15th model with improved model performance, less uncertainty and higher model efficiency. We benchmark the original Model 1 and the final Model 15 with HBV Light. The final model is not able to outperform HBV Light, but we find that the incremental model breakdown leads to a structure with good model performance, fewer but more relevant processes and fewer model parameters. © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Model structures; Hydrological modeling; Hydrological process; Incremental modeling; Model construction; Multiple hypothesis; Objective functions; Root mean square errors; Standard deviation; Mean square error; benchmarking; catchment; comparative study; hydrological modeling; performance assessment; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159929
作者单位	Jehn, F.U., Research Centre for BioSystems Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, Giessen, 35390, Germany; Breuer, L., Research Centre for BioSystems Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, Giessen, 35390, Germany, Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstrae 3, Giessen, 35392, Germany; Houska, T., Research Centre for BioSystems Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, Giessen, 35390, Germany; Bestian, K., Research Centre for BioSystems Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, Giessen, 35390, Ge...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jehn F.U.,Breuer L.,Houska T.,et al. Incremental model breakdown to assess the multi-hypotheses problem[J],2018,22(8).
APA	Jehn F.U.,Breuer L.,Houska T.,Bestian K.,&Kraft P..(2018).Incremental model breakdown to assess the multi-hypotheses problem.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(8).
MLA	Jehn F.U.,et al."Incremental model breakdown to assess the multi-hypotheses problem".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.8(2018).