气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-4793-2018
	Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology
	Chang S.; Graham W.; Geurink J.; Wanakule N.; Asefa T.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4793
结束页码	4813
卷号	22 期号:9
英文摘要	General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems, ability to meet future water demand, and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. In this study eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the bias correction and stochastic analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods and eight different water use scenarios, to drive an integrated hydrologic model previously developed for the Tampa Bay region in western central Florida. Variance-based sensitivity analysis showed that changes in projected streamflow were very sensitive to GCM selection, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method or water use scenario. Changes in projections of groundwater level were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method. Five of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater availability in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. For the business as usual water use scenario all eight GCMs indicated that, even with active water conservation programs, increases in public water demand projected for 2045 could not be met from ground and surface water supplies while achieving current groundwater level and surface water flow regulations. With adoption of 40% wastewater reuse for public supply and active conservation four of the eight GCMs indicate that 2045 public water demand could be met while achieving current environmental regulations; however, drier climates would require a switch from groundwater to surface water use. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future freshwater supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate. Broad interpretation of the results of this study may be limited by the fact that all future water use scenarios assumed that increases in water demand would be the result of intensification of water use on existing agricultural, industrial, and urban lands. Future work should evaluate the impacts of a range of potential land use change scenarios, with associated water use change projections, over a larger number of GCMs. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aquatic ecosystems; Climate models; Environmental regulations; Groundwater; Land use; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Stream flow; Surface waters; Wastewater reclamation; Water conservation; Water supply; Climate change impact; Conservation programs; Downscaling methods; General circulation model; Hydrologic modeling; Regional hydrologies; Surface water flows; Variance-based sensitivity analysis; Climate change; climate change; conservation status; freshwater; general circulation model; groundwater; hydrological modeling; hydrology; land use change; streamflow; surface water; wastewater; wastewater treatment; water demand; water flow; water resource; water supply; water use efficiency; Florida [United States]; Tampa Bay; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159916
作者单位	Chang, S., Water Institute, University of Florida, 570 Weil Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Graham, W., Water Institute, University of Florida, 570 Weil Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 116601, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Geurink, J., Tampa Bay Water, 2575 Enterprise Rd, Clearwater, FL 33763-1102, United States; Wanakule, N., Tampa Bay Water, 2575 Enterprise Rd, Clearwater, FL 33763-1102, United States; Asefa, T., Tampa Bay Water, 2575 Enterprise Rd, Clearwater, FL 33763-1102, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chang S.,Graham W.,Geurink J.,et al. Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology[J],2018,22(9).
APA	Chang S.,Graham W.,Geurink J.,Wanakule N.,&Asefa T..(2018).Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(9).
MLA	Chang S.,et al."Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.9(2018).